This month has been a very lazy month for me. I've not really spent any time arbing. I don't think it's because I don't think it's profitable or that I am bored of it, I just haven't had the "va-va-voom" to get into it for the past fortnight. I've spent a lot of time working out a strategy for Betfair and testing out small trades to see what happens. This has meant that arbing has been on the back burner for the past fortnight or so.
Anyway, I have a few questions to answer it seems. Nfehily wrote:
very interesting blog, it does sound like that its not possible to make the big bucks without the big bucks to play wiv becoz the roi is so small on each arb and u r being handicapped by bookies limitations also. arbs will always exist providing that the bookies dont buy each other out and betfair will always provide good fluidity but is arbing profitable in the long term without multi ids? couldnt u set up new bookie accounts using ur wifes id and increase stakes and see how long that would last before paying relatives etc to do the same?
I agree that with most arbs, the ROI is quite small, and that arbs will always occur due to the sheer number of bookmakers. Whilst having a big bank can help, I'm sure that too has its own problems. On the topic of multiple id's, I don't really believe in them. This is not to say that I think they are wrong or you shouldn't do it. The reason I don't use multiple Id's is due to my nature I think. I'm quite risk averse with my arbing, and I have read enough posts and forums regarding people that have had funds "on hold" by the bookmakers as they believe the person was using multiple id's. As such, anything which I don't feel comfortable with, I don't do. I am sure there are many people that use different Id's to open account, place arbs with and so on, and know the process very well would disagree with my decision. Anything that makes me jumpy or unsure about arbing, I have tried not to do.
Sal joined in with a few questions too:
would it not be smarter to in general try to play small bets and try to stay under the radar just to keep your accounts alive, or are bookies just monitoring what kind of bets someone places and not in particular at the amounts someone bets?
I'm not an experienced arber, so whatever I say is based on my own opinion. I am sure there are many intelligent arbers that know much more than me, and have worked out ways to overcome the problems mentioned in the question. However, I believe that bookmakers aren't stupid and have ample resources to make sure that punters or arbers don't take them for a ride and ultimately affect their profitability. I don't think that by playing small bets you would stay under the radar. If there is an obscure football match in Iran, and you placed your £10 arb, there is no guarantee that the bookmakers won't realise that you are possibly arbing. The reason? The same arb you have spotted may have been released to all subscribers of an arb service, and as soon as bigger bets start coming in, the price will change. The bookmaker could now tar with the same brush, all the people that have placed the same arb as you as an arber and you get your account restricted. On the other hand, if I could go back again, I would change the way I placed arbs with certain bookies, especially any arbs with Stan James, Victor Chandler and Bet365. These bookmakers have very good odds that are advantageous to an arber, I would place arbs that were with teams/leagues/matches that were very mainstreams, i.e. Premier League, Serie A, Spanish League, Champions League etc. By doing this, I have a gut feeling that you would get larger bets on and wouldn't stick out as an arber, and so take advantage of a few more arbs. Also, arbing is generally considered to be the fastest way to get limited by a bookie, as you are in effect taking advantage of odds which are out of line and are best odds in most cases, as such you are more likely to come to the attention of the bookie, and your account will get restricted...so why not take advantage of them as much as you can before the inevitable occurs.
Then what I also don't get is that some people say you need to start or play with a big bankroll. Obviously this would work perfectly fine if it wasn't for those bookies to limit you, and the fact certain bookies have limits. So what's the point in having a huge BR, to make a few 'big' hits? Doesn't this just increase the chance of being limited faster?
I started with a small bank, and if you put the time in you will make a profit. People have different expectations, whilst one person is happy with £100 per month, another would like £1000 per month. A betting bank or starting bankroll is a personal thing in my opinion. If you don't feel comfortable with risking large amounts or in the worst case losing a large portion due to an error, then don't stake more than what you can afford to lose. Depending on your expectation and persona, then you will have your own idea of what you need to start off with. I can understand why a large bankroll can be good. Once you get going, and getting limited then a large bankroll would come in handy because you can put more money on tiny arbs to make it worthwhile. Normally, I find that bookies that will take large bets, like Pinnacle, Ladbrokes, 188Bet, Canbet etc. will have arbs between them, and you can place large stakes on each side, but the arb may only offer tiny returns like 0.2% etc. This is where the large bankroll would come in handy I imagine, as you can place relatively large amounts on these tiny returns and at the end of the day you might make £100 or so. The larger the bankroll the more arbs of this nature you can place. I don't think it is uncommon for people with such large bankrolls to subscribe to a number of alert services so that they pick out the ones that they know will accept large bets and know that they are getting a variety of arbs on which to place their money on.
Another question I have is regarding the use of software. You mention you have only used free trials. Don't you think that if you would have used software, you would have been able to play better arbs? Of course it would have costed some money, but in your case you made around 1600 in 2 months, so if for example the software would have given you 10% extra return on your arbs, it would already have made you 60, taking into consideration that Rebelbetting (from what I have read the best software) is about 100 a month.
I have used free trials, free websites and free arbs from vendors like Rebel Betting. I agree that if I paid extra I may make a little bit more. I am looking into it, and don't want to rush it. I use Surebet Monitor on Mondays as its free all day and you get all the arbs, You can use Rebel Betting for arbs upto 0.6%, Mathbet for arbs upto 0.9%, Oddstorm for arbs upto 1%, Oddsportal and a few others where you can pick out larger arbs that don't cost you the fee of subscription. I only do this part time, and I fit it around work commitments. If I was doing it full time, then I would pay out the extra costs. Also, remember that you can always take advantage of free trials or discounted trials if you want to get a few more arbs on a week where you may be off from work etc.
In your last post you talk about the fact you can't find enough arbs due to many of your accounts being limited, does this mean anyones arbing career lasts for as long as all his accounts are limited?
I am not an experienced arber, and I really do think that i may just be scratching the surface. If you look through some of the posts on the arbing orientated forums, then you will see that there a quite a few people that have been doing it for a long time. You can tell by the date they started posting or when they talk about an arb x amount of years ago. It also seems like they use their own experience to find arbs and know where they can get their money on, where to find the best odds and which bookie to use. Whilst they don't tell you what they do, or what their tricks of the trade are...you can read between the lines in some answers that they do provide that they are profitable and do churn large amounts. Whether I reach that stage at some point in the future...I don't know. But I do know, that I'll have to find the answers myself as no one will show me the way. I think sometimes we can get too bogged down with things that may or may not happen. Like betting or trading, you may have an edge one day, but find that it disappears as the market evolves over time. I think it's the same with arbing, if you don't start the journey, then you won't get anywhere. Once you're on it, who know where it may take you.
I hope the above has helped. Please remember it is only my opinion and experiences. I may be talking out of my bottom, or am way off the mark..but I have tried to be as honest as possible. If you don't agree or know better, then please do leave a comment. I really want to learn..and anything that helps me to make a profit will be appreciated.
