Some Questions, Some Answers

This month has been a very lazy month for me. I've not really spent any time arbing. I don't think it's because I don't think it's profitable or that I am bored of it, I just haven't had the "va-va-voom" to get into it for the past fortnight. I've spent a lot of time working out a strategy for Betfair and testing out small trades to see what happens. This has meant that arbing has been on the back burner for the past fortnight or so. 

Anyway, I have a few questions to answer it seems. Nfehily wrote:

very interesting blog, it does sound like that its not possible to make the big bucks without the big bucks to play wiv becoz the roi is so small on each arb and u r being handicapped by bookies limitations also. arbs will always exist providing that the bookies dont buy each other out and betfair will always provide good fluidity but is arbing profitable in the long term without multi ids? couldnt u set up new bookie accounts using ur wifes id and increase stakes and see how long that would last before paying relatives etc to do the same?

I agree that with most arbs, the ROI is quite small, and that arbs will always occur due to the sheer number of bookmakers. Whilst having a big bank can help, I'm sure that too has its own problems. On the topic of multiple id's, I don't really believe in them. This is not to say that I think they are wrong or you shouldn't do it. The reason I don't use multiple Id's is due to my nature I think. I'm quite risk averse with my arbing, and I have read enough posts and forums regarding people that have had funds "on hold" by the bookmakers as they believe the person was using multiple id's. As such, anything which I don't feel comfortable with, I don't do. I am sure there are many people that use different Id's to open account, place arbs with and so on, and know the process very well would disagree with my decision. Anything that makes me jumpy or unsure about arbing, I have tried not to do. 

Sal joined in with a few questions too:

would it not be smarter to in general try to play small bets and try to stay under the radar just to keep your accounts alive, or are bookies just monitoring what kind of bets someone places and not in particular at the amounts someone bets?

I'm not an experienced arber, so whatever I say is based on my own opinion. I am sure there are many intelligent arbers that know much more than me, and have worked out ways to overcome the problems mentioned in the question. However, I believe that bookmakers aren't stupid and have ample resources to make sure that punters or arbers don't take them for a ride and ultimately affect their profitability. I don't think that by playing small bets you would stay under the radar. If there is an obscure football match in Iran, and you placed your £10 arb, there is no guarantee that the bookmakers won't realise that you are possibly arbing. The reason? The same arb you have spotted may have been released to all subscribers of an arb service, and as soon as bigger bets start coming in, the price will change. The bookmaker could now tar with the same brush, all the people that have placed the same arb as you as an arber and you get your account restricted. On the other hand, if I could go back again, I would change the way I placed arbs with certain bookies, especially any arbs with Stan James, Victor Chandler and Bet365. These bookmakers have very good odds that are advantageous to an arber, I would place arbs that were with teams/leagues/matches that were very mainstreams, i.e. Premier League, Serie A, Spanish League, Champions League etc. By doing this, I have a gut feeling that you would get larger bets on and wouldn't stick out as an arber, and so take advantage of a few more arbs. Also, arbing is generally considered to be the fastest way to get limited by a bookie, as you are in effect taking advantage of odds which are out of line and are best odds in most cases, as such you are more likely to come to the attention of the bookie, and your account will get restricted...so why not take advantage of them as much as you can before the inevitable occurs.

Then what I also don't get is that some people say you need to start or play with a big bankroll. Obviously this would work perfectly fine if it wasn't for those bookies to limit you, and the fact certain bookies have limits. So what's the point in having a huge BR, to make a few 'big' hits? Doesn't this just increase the chance of being limited faster?

I started with a small bank, and if you put the time in you will make a profit. People have different expectations, whilst one person is happy with £100 per month, another would like £1000 per month. A betting bank or starting bankroll is a personal thing in my opinion. If you don't feel comfortable with risking large amounts or in the worst case losing a large portion due to an error, then don't stake more than what you can afford to lose. Depending on your expectation and persona, then you will have your own idea of what you need to start off with. I can understand why a large bankroll can be good. Once you get going, and getting limited then a large bankroll would come in handy because you can put more money on tiny arbs to make it worthwhile. Normally, I find that bookies that will take large bets, like Pinnacle, Ladbrokes, 188Bet, Canbet etc. will have arbs between them, and you can place large stakes on each side, but the arb may only offer tiny returns like 0.2% etc. This is where the large bankroll would come in handy I imagine, as you can place relatively large amounts on these tiny returns and at the end of the day you might make £100 or so. The larger the bankroll the more arbs of this nature you can place. I don't think it is uncommon for people with such large bankrolls to subscribe to a number of alert services so that they pick out the ones that they know will accept large bets and know that they are getting a variety of arbs on which to place their money on.

Another question I have is regarding the use of software. You mention you have only used free trials. Don't you think that if you would have used software, you would have been able to play better arbs? Of course it would have costed some money, but in your case you made around 1600 in 2 months, so if for example the software would have given you 10% extra return on your arbs, it would already have made you 60, taking into consideration that Rebelbetting (from what I have read the best software) is about 100 a month.

I have used free trials, free websites and free arbs from vendors like Rebel Betting. I agree that if I paid extra I may make a little bit more. I am looking into it, and don't want to rush it. I use Surebet Monitor on Mondays as its free all day and you get all the arbs, You can use Rebel Betting for arbs upto 0.6%, Mathbet for arbs upto 0.9%, Oddstorm for arbs upto 1%, Oddsportal and a few others where you can pick out larger arbs that don't cost you the fee of subscription. I only do this part time, and I fit it around work commitments. If I was doing it full time, then I would pay out the extra costs. Also, remember that you can always take advantage of free trials or discounted trials if you want to get a few more arbs on a week where you may be off from work etc.

In your last post you talk about the fact you can't find enough arbs due to many of your accounts being limited, does this mean anyones arbing career lasts for as long as all his accounts are limited?

I am not an experienced arber, and I really do think that i may just be scratching the surface. If you look through some of the posts on the arbing orientated forums, then you will see that there a quite a few people that have been doing it for a long time. You can tell by the date they started posting or when they talk about an arb x amount of years ago. It also seems like they use their own experience to find arbs and know where they can get their money on, where to find the best odds and which bookie to use. Whilst they don't tell you what they do, or what their tricks of the trade are...you can read between the lines in some answers that they do provide that they are profitable and do churn large amounts. Whether I reach that stage at some point in the future...I don't know. But I do know, that I'll have to find the answers myself as no one will show me the way. I think sometimes we can get too bogged down with things that may or may not happen. Like betting or trading, you may have an edge one day, but find that it disappears as the market evolves over time. I think it's the same with arbing, if you don't start the journey, then you won't get anywhere. Once you're on it, who know where it may take you. 

I hope the above has helped. Please remember it is only my opinion and experiences. I may be talking out of my bottom, or am way off the mark..but I have tried to be as honest as possible. If you don't agree or know better, then please do leave a comment. I really want to learn..and anything that helps me to make a profit will be appreciated. 

January Stalls

On the arbing front, January so far has been dismal. Since my last post, I have not really done any arbing at all. I hope to pick this up for the 2nd half of this month, and make sure I work a bit of profit into the betting bank.

My time has been devoted more to working on a strategy that I can use for horse racing, concentrating on inplay price swings. Whilst the action is fast and furious, and the prices change like crazy, I have a strategy that I have tested today. On first impressions, I am quite pleased with it. Over the day I traded 15 races, all in the inplay market only , and ended up with a profit of £0.92 on stakes of £2. Whilst the profit figure is nothing to write home about, it is a good sign. If it continues to do well over the course of a month and a good number of races, then it may be that I will be upping my stakes to get a better profit return.

January Jump Start Needed

A week into 2012 and my arbing could do with a jump start! There are a few "base" bookies that I know will accept big bets, but to make the arb work I need the opposing bookie to to offer some juicy odds to make it pay. Since I whittled down my bookies, mainly due to account restrictions, I am finding it hard to get a worthwhile return. Over the past few days, opportunities seemed hard to come by. Most of the arbs were quite stingy, I didn't really find much over 1%. The main problem wasn't that, but the fact that I couldn't get large bets on with the opposing bookie. On most occasions the stakes were under £100 in total, and that meant the winning returns ranged from £0.10 - £1.00. This coupled with the time it takes to place lots of little arbs and record keeping, it hardly seemed worth it. I really need to start being more aggressive, and even more disciplined! When I did have some spare time, I did switch off as I just couldn't be bothered. This is a bit of a let down..I thought I was stronger mentally and could just "get on with it". I am also trying to do more Middles in the hope that over the long run, it will pay for itself. Whilst the returns are extremely low when the Middle doesn't hit, about 0.2% or so, it will pay better when the Middle does it hit. So far I have had two Middles hit, and they account for 77% of the profit made so far for the month. Before you think this is really good, my profit this month is very poor compared to the previous months. I am averaging about £4 per day so far. Whilst I am not losing anything, I feel a bit deflated to be honest.

Roll on 2012

I want to wish everyone a Happy New Year.

Over the past few days, I have been doing a bit of thinking and planning what I want to do for the coming year. Ideally, by the end of the year I want to make a profit, and average out a £1000 profit per month. This is my aim, whether it is achievable or pie in the sky is open to debate. I should know the answer by this time next year.

At the moment, I work full time, so I'm not under pressure to make it pay. Anything extra I make is a bonus. However, this doesn't mean to say I can be willy nilly and waste my money. I don't want to lose it.

At the moment, I will continue with the arbing. Whatever arb comes up, whether it is 0.5%, 0.7%, 1% or 2% plus I will take it. I'm only using bookies that I can see what the max stake is and I will be looking to exploit any arb fully. As wrapper (a user on arbforum) said:

a 1% arb is a good arb, all the 0.4% arbs you do all add up to a much bigger one, the problems you mention about limits affects everyone on here, you're no different, from reading your blog you are doing well, arbing is very time consuming, from my perspective i have to put in the hours, good arbs will always come along whilst you are searching and finding less lucrative ones, because you bankroll is small you probably don't want to do the lesser arbs as it ties up your cash, as your bankroll increases you will do them more

That is very good advice in my opinion. If my money isn't working for me, or i'm not looking for arbs then I'm not making any money. Look after the pennies and the pounds will look after themselves as the saying goes.

I am also aiming to give trading on Betfair another go. I have two or three ideas that I need to work on. When I started my blog, I was scalping the horse racing markets for a tick  or so, and at the time I did make a profit but just thought I was running out of steam. I did make some notes and observations, and I've started to revisit these. I need to work out a trading plan before I go steaming in. Hopefully, this will add another income stream to the arbing adventure.