What is a Middle?

A middle is an arbitrage situation that falls between a surebet and a regular bet. This only applies if the middle has a positive value, i.e. by doing the bet you will not lose.

It is a combination of two opposite bets that are placed on the same event. The difference from a surebet is that a middle will always have two bets, and both can win under certain conditions.

You can either win one bet and get the other bet refunded, or win both bets. A middle occurs when the '+' side is bigger than the '-' side or when 'Overs' is smaller than the 'Unders'.

An example of a middle:

Man Utd v Arsenal

Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.14 (Stake £48)

Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.96 (Stake £52)

If 3 goals or under, you win £1.92

If 2 goals or more you win £2.72

If exactly 3 goals you win £104.64 (£54.72 + £49.92) as both bets will pay out.

This is a positive middle as you get a payout even if the middle isn't hit. However, there is another side to middles which are called Polish Middles, Irish Middles or Negative Middles.

With these sort of middles, you would lose a small percent of your initial stake if the middle was not met.

An example of a negative middle:

Jamtland Basket v LF Basket

Over 175.5 @ 1.88 (Stake £51)

Under 176.5 @ 1.96 (Stake £49)

If the middle which is 176 points isn't hit you will lose either £4.12 or £3.96 depending on the result. If both bets win you would receive a payout of £91.92.

A negative middle is very similar to regular betting. You are willing to risk losing most bets, so that some of the middles will be met in order to receive a greater return.

A middle will normally occur if the following are met:

* Either bet has to win

* Bets should have an overlapping range of outcomes so that both bets could win

* The odds that are on offer allow you take advantage

The main thing that you should ask yourself if you find a middle (even more so if it is a negative middle), is it worth risking my money? It is a positive middle then you wont lose no matter what the outcome. With negative middles, if you bet blindly you will almost certainly make a loss in the long run.

I hope this post makes sense. I have added the following links which may be better at explaining Middles than this post:

http://www.oddstorm.com/middles.php

http://sportsarbitrageworld.wordpress.com/middles-sides/

http://rebelbetting.com/faq/middles

http://rebelbetting.com/faq/what-is-a-negative-middle

http://www.surebetmonitor.com/2011/05/18/lesson-05-how-to-double-win-on-surebet-explore-middles/

http://analyticalsports.blogspot.com/2007/07/polish-middles.html

Slow Struggle

The past fortnight has felt like a struggle, and almost like swimming against a strong current. I am now heavily restricted with the "soft" bookies (as stated in my last post) and because of this, I have found it hard to find some good profitable arbs, especially those that offer a ROI of at least 3% or better. There have been very few arbs of this nature, and I have mainly been working with small arbs. The main thing I have noticed is that some of my bookies that I have been forced to use because of account closures dont take big bets, i.e. anything over £50-£100. This makes it hard as I have to spend more time on arbing, and I end up spreading my money all over the place to use up all of my betting bank, and make sure that these little titbits add up at the end of the day. Since the last update I have added an extra £516 to the bank, which is an ROI of 2.86%.

There has been a slight change in the way I arb as well. Previously, I would make the same amount of profit no matter what the outcome. However, recently I am prepared to put more on one outcome than the other. If there is a heavy odds on price I will lean the arb to that outcome so I win more on that, and cover my bet if the outsider wins. It has worked to an extent, but I need to keep an eye on it to make sure I'm getting the best returns for my money in the long term.

So far, I can't grumble about my arbing adventure. I have slowly built my bank up in a risk free manner to some extent. There are always risks, I don't think there is anything risk free as such. The odds could move, there could be a palpable error, I could make a mistake etc. On the whole, its been good going!

Finally, I found a really interesting forum post at Arbusers, and I have simply copied and pasted it here. The title is: Where do the odds originate?

The first bookmakers that compile odds, are the underground from far east. No need to mention all the names, but Singbet, Crown888, and clones are the first to air odds.

For example, Saturday's EPL's games will be up on Monday noon (depending where you live). They have very accurate odds compilers, and a mistake is a rare phenomenon for them. However, they are not Gods, and some mistakes will appear.

During the week, the majority of the bookmakers will offer lines, but firstly, they will take a look in China, so they will be in line. Last but not least, Bodog, will offer its lines on Friday.

There are several factors that make a line move. Briefly:

Tipsters, and tipping companies from the far east. Injuries. Inside info.

A small player will not move a line. These people with huge bankrolls, and willing to bet millions per game will be key factors. Imagine someone who wants to bet 1 mn in a game. Even Betfair will not be strong enough, and odds will fall. For example, a 1 mn bet in 1.73, of EPL, will move the line to 1.67-69. This guy is not stupid and he wants the best odds available. Traders and middlemen like AsianConnect is a great solution for them. They give the order, and their bet is splitted to a number of bookmakers, Sbobet, 188bet, Pinnacle, Stsbet, etc. These traders have leveraged accounts, so if a player like me has a limit of 20k per bet, they have a limit of 100k.

This mass of bets will create a dropping odds, that alert services will present it to the arbing community.

There are also some players (and some arbusers also) that create a line move, working as a syndicate, and placing large bets in order to create this move. Then, the mass of arbers bonus abusers and trend followers will try to get to the train, enlarging the move. Then, the syndicates are placing the opposite outcome.

Finally, the mass of pure square bettors will make a great line move. Just notice the Liverpool's odds dropping 15-20 minutes before kick off. Millions of 10-20 euro bets.

Reaching Limits

When I started my arbing, I decided to make sure I record all arbs so that I knew where my money was tied, what arbs had been placed, what returns I was getting and what money was being withdrawn. At the time, I decided to monitor my progress over 28 days, so that in a year there would be 13 periods to watch. I completed my 2nd period yesterday. In total I have been arbing for 56 days now. In that time, my profit stands at £1760, which is a ROI of 2.83% from total stakes of £67,755. 

The main reason for this is due to hard work and bank management. Whilst arbing is minimal risk, I have had to put the hours in to make sure I take advantage of any arbs that come up. Also, by using my entire bank every day I have been able to build up profits, and every little has helped.

I am now at the stage where some of the more profitable bookmakers have limited to tiny stakes, and I am finding it harder to get arbs. Bet365, Stan James, Victor Chandler, Nordic Bet, Betsson, BWin, Betsafe, 888 Sport, Blue Sq, Paddyower and Panbet have all restricted me to a few pences and pounds. These are good "soft" books and if I am honest, I have taken as much advantage of them as I could. 

I now have to decide what to do next. An option that I need to explore is to look at bookmakers that show me what the maximum stake is before I place a bet, and if I know this I will be able to maximise any profitable arbs. Obviously by doing this, I may get limited quicker but I think this is a risk worth taking. Another option is slightly different, but goes with arbing and that is Middles. These are not so profitable if the middle isn't met, but can offer better profits if the middle comes up.

I'll explain Middles in my next post for anyone interested. Until then, I wish you all the best.