Slow Struggle

The past fortnight has felt like a struggle, and almost like swimming against a strong current. I am now heavily restricted with the "soft" bookies (as stated in my last post) and because of this, I have found it hard to find some good profitable arbs, especially those that offer a ROI of at least 3% or better. There have been very few arbs of this nature, and I have mainly been working with small arbs. The main thing I have noticed is that some of my bookies that I have been forced to use because of account closures dont take big bets, i.e. anything over £50-£100. This makes it hard as I have to spend more time on arbing, and I end up spreading my money all over the place to use up all of my betting bank, and make sure that these little titbits add up at the end of the day. Since the last update I have added an extra £516 to the bank, which is an ROI of 2.86%.

There has been a slight change in the way I arb as well. Previously, I would make the same amount of profit no matter what the outcome. However, recently I am prepared to put more on one outcome than the other. If there is a heavy odds on price I will lean the arb to that outcome so I win more on that, and cover my bet if the outsider wins. It has worked to an extent, but I need to keep an eye on it to make sure I'm getting the best returns for my money in the long term.

So far, I can't grumble about my arbing adventure. I have slowly built my bank up in a risk free manner to some extent. There are always risks, I don't think there is anything risk free as such. The odds could move, there could be a palpable error, I could make a mistake etc. On the whole, its been good going!

Finally, I found a really interesting forum post at Arbusers, and I have simply copied and pasted it here. The title is: Where do the odds originate?

The first bookmakers that compile odds, are the underground from far east. No need to mention all the names, but Singbet, Crown888, and clones are the first to air odds.

For example, Saturday's EPL's games will be up on Monday noon (depending where you live). They have very accurate odds compilers, and a mistake is a rare phenomenon for them. However, they are not Gods, and some mistakes will appear.

During the week, the majority of the bookmakers will offer lines, but firstly, they will take a look in China, so they will be in line. Last but not least, Bodog, will offer its lines on Friday.

There are several factors that make a line move. Briefly:

Tipsters, and tipping companies from the far east. Injuries. Inside info.

A small player will not move a line. These people with huge bankrolls, and willing to bet millions per game will be key factors. Imagine someone who wants to bet 1 mn in a game. Even Betfair will not be strong enough, and odds will fall. For example, a 1 mn bet in 1.73, of EPL, will move the line to 1.67-69. This guy is not stupid and he wants the best odds available. Traders and middlemen like AsianConnect is a great solution for them. They give the order, and their bet is splitted to a number of bookmakers, Sbobet, 188bet, Pinnacle, Stsbet, etc. These traders have leveraged accounts, so if a player like me has a limit of 20k per bet, they have a limit of 100k.

This mass of bets will create a dropping odds, that alert services will present it to the arbing community.

There are also some players (and some arbusers also) that create a line move, working as a syndicate, and placing large bets in order to create this move. Then, the mass of arbers bonus abusers and trend followers will try to get to the train, enlarging the move. Then, the syndicates are placing the opposite outcome.

Finally, the mass of pure square bettors will make a great line move. Just notice the Liverpool's odds dropping 15-20 minutes before kick off. Millions of 10-20 euro bets.